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Thu Jun 13, 2013 at 12:15 PM PDT

Shadow Insurance Explained

by bonddad

    Over the last month, international tax planning and captive insurance -- two areas of law and tax planning typically shrouded in mystery -- have come to the forefront of the news cycle.  Unfortunately, both areas are typically poorly reported on not because of journalistic negligence or incompetence but due to the sheer complexity of the topics at hand.  Tax law is typically only taught in detail at the graduate legal level and captive insurance is not taught at all.  Moreover, the legal issues involved with captive insurance span a very broad swath of law including contracts, business entities, estate planning, tax planning, and insurance – three of which (estate planning, tax law and insurance) are in and of themselves legal specialties.  The purpose of this article is to provide the reader with a basic explanation and outline of captive insurance – what it is, how it came about and the current state of the law.  In addition, at the end I’ll talk a bit about the recent New York regulatory situation.  I’d be remiss at this point if I didn’t engage in a bit of self-promotion by stating that if you’d like to learn more you can purchase my book U.S. Captive Insurance Law or visit my website.  At minimum, it will cure you of your insomnia.

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Ms. Malkin:

In a series of Twitter exchanges reported on Talking Points Memo (see GOP Senator Spars With Michelle Malkin On ‘Obamacare’ published on June 14, 2012) you stated that the requirement that all Americans purchase insurance is a “slacker mandate.”  I believe this statement is ill-advised and would like to offer the following explanation, along with a personal story.  

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In July, the community was informed that two leading indicators were "crashing;" the ECRI's leading indicator index had dropped to levels that would indicate a double dip recession was around the corner and the Baltic Dry Index was down as well.  In response, I noted that the organization that created the ECRI index did not agree with the interpretation of pending doom.  In addition, at that time, the conference Board's leading indicators were not "crashing."

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The LA Times ran a story last weekend titled, Still Betting on Economic Doomsday -- and Still Waiting. The article highlighted the plight of what Barry Ritholtz calls the Zombie Bears -- "pundits" who will state the economy is on the brink of economic collapse regardless of the underlying data. What is most important is these "pundits" have been wrong for the last five quarters when the economy has grown and all evidence indicates a recovery is underway.  Yet, for reasons unknown, their writings still spread like wildfire throughout the blogsphere.

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This is a joint diary by Bonddad and New Deal democrat.

In December 2008, with the economy and employment in freefall, NDD asked Is there Hope for an Obama Economic Recovery in 2009?  After noting that " This is an economy in free-fall" and that "a Deflationary Bust -- the first since 1938 -- is in full force, " I wrote that

  Left to its own devices, I suspect the economy would succumb to a deflationary spiral. But Ben Bernanke and the Federal Reserve know this as well: Bernanke is a scholar of Federal Reserve mistakes during the 1929-32 Great Depression. He is resolved not to make the same mistakes that were made then.  
....
There is at least some hope [that] ....a new Administration in Washington populated by Economic Adults may unfreeze the logjam of money supply sitting in banks and not being lent out.  Certainly there is a pressing need for massive infrastructure investments that can lead to renewed bank lending and economic expansion on Main Street.

Yes there is Hope for an Obama Economic Recovery in 2009.

Yesterday the non-partisan NBER confirmed that is exactly what happened.

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Sun Jul 11, 2010 at 05:49 AM PDT

Leading Indicators Are Not "Crashing"

by bonddad

Recently, we're been told that leading indicators are crashing, with the implication that a double-dip recession is assured.  This is not the case.

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Thu May 06, 2010 at 10:12 AM PDT

Bonddad's Economic Reckoning

by bonddad

On August 24 of last year, I wrote a GBCW diary, largely because of the uncivil tone expressed in my diaries regarding my economic analysis.  Starting on May 8, 2009 my outlook on the economy -- as dictated by an analysis of the underlying facts -- began to turn more bullish.  However, since my departure a fundamental question remains: was this bullishness warranted?  As I will demonstrate below, my analysis was accurate.

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Mon Aug 24, 2009 at 06:10 AM PDT

GBCW

by bonddad

Since I have been writing about how I believe the economy is bottoming, the tone of the comments has grown increasingly negative and personal.  While I am happy to engage in civil debate, I am not happy to be personally attacked on a continuing basis.  

This will by my last post until it appears the community is interested in civil discourse and diversity of opinions without personal invective and attacks.

If you like my analysis, you can read my longer pieces at Huffington Post or the shorter pieces at my blog.

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Sun Aug 23, 2009 at 05:42 AM PDT

The Myth of the Black Swan

by bonddad

The most common argument made against people who see a recovery emerging is that we are in the middle of uncharted waters where the traditional rules of economic analysis don't apply.  As I will demonstrate, nothing could be farther from the truth.

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Sat Aug 22, 2009 at 06:09 AM PDT

When Will the Jobs Return?

by bonddad

Despite the fact that most economic numbers are currently moving in the right direction, one statistic remains stubbornly high: the unemployment rate.  The question on everybody's lips is when will this number come down?  Let's look at the data to see what it says.

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Over the last week and a half more data has emerged that the economies of the US and our trading partners are stabilizing.  Let's take a look at the data.  http://www.dailykos.com/...

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The US government has come to an agreement with UBS regarding a long-running tax fraud investigation.  This has been a fascinating case to watch for several reasons which I will explain below.  

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