The hawks are at it again. All the things we have heard before are coming back. Obama must do more. He is feckless. He has no strategy. He is scared to use American force. He does not believe in America's exceptional power to shape the world.
I would like to offer my iteration of a very simple argument here, and would love your feedback. It is a basic argument, but one that cannot be used by President Obama for PR purposes. It cannot be used too much in America anyway, except perhaps on this forum.
And here it is: very little that has happened in Iraq and Syria has to do with Obama, and there is very little he can do about it. And Obama knows this!
The best he can do is mitigate (only tactically) against the worst of the worst – which he is doing – and wait for something sustainable to emerge out of the million shades of grey in the region. Unless and until that happens (and his lieutenants are trying), there can be no lift-off even if the entire American population is drafted and sent into Iraq. There is not a way for more force to solve this, or even come close, and America is privileged Obama believes that.
Shades of Grey
Now about those acceptable and sustainable shades of grey in the region: a lot of the problem was caused by those ranting and raving the loudest today – people who belong to what can be called the Freedom Agenda Caucus.
The Freedom Agenda Caucus have, over almost fourteen years, brutally savaged options to work with some factions within the factions that we are fighting. And this has often been lost amid the rightful argument over whether we should have been fighting at all.
Mistakes in who and how we should have fought, assuming we simply had to fight, have also led us to where we are today. These bells cannot be unrung. Lost opportunities are not found again in this reason. And so, American credibility is understandably low, American influence is fittingly limited. Not because Obama did not arm the rebels, or because he won't go hot and heavy into Iraq, but – to be blunt – because we screwed people we did not absolutely need to screw.
In the process, we also squandered our leverage to deal with actors in the region, and make the best of what has been and is likely to be a series of bad situations. Again, the Freedom Agenda Caucus has been duplicitous, often acting out of pique than a good evaluation of options. Let me offer how.
Iraq
The Sunni Awakening in Iraq was nothing but very expensive damage control, after brutally destroying all of Saddam's Ba'athist institutions. That destruction was about ego and myopia, as has been documented today. In fact, assuming for a moment that Saddam had to be removed (by America), or would have had to at some point, it can be argued that much of the chaos that followed could have been limited by including some of the Ba'athist structures in the rebuilding process. Most of the problems, both post invasion and now (ISIS), are because of a power vacuum in Sunni dominated areas. America had leverage; it could have negotiated good terms. But it did not, and that cannot be undone. We (and Iraqis) are still paying a price for Bush's ego!
Afghanistan
America could and should have spoken extensively to segments of the Taliban. Sure they publicly refused to surrender Al Qaeda and their lieutenants. But would all rank and file agree, even after some shock-and-awe? Maybe they split, maybe we find something we can include in the rebuilding. America surely had enough CIA operatives for this mission, but everybody in the world, famously, was either 'With us or against us' - a highly idiotic foreign policy in a region that has more than fifty shades of grey.
Perhaps there were some acceptable shades – but Bush could only see black and white. It would have been crazy to suggest that military force could be, not a strategy to defeat them, but a tactic to break them apart, to divide and conquer.
Iran
This is not about Bush, but about why we are struggling to find the right answers today. Lest we forget, Iran was practically begging for a nuclear deal in 2003, under a leader perhaps more moderate than President Rouhani. They were willing to give up all centrifuges. But they were a part of President Bush's famed Axis of Evil. Of course they were rebuffed. Eight years of Ahmedinejad followed. These people truly have no shame when they criticize Obama over Iran today.
Options: Wait?
So what now? Dumping on Obama by these very same people might excite the right and far-right, but is not a policy. The legacy of these mistakes is still with us, and limits American options. The best Obama can do today, is conduct (very tactical) strikes to stop the very worst, and keep trying to engage with the actors, and try to distinguish between the acceptable and unacceptable shades of grey.
1) Some arrangement with a section of the Taliban will have to be made in Afghanistan, which the Afghan government will have to handle smartly, in a way Hamid Karzai was never willing to. If not, it might not be generating headlines today, but one day, after more American troops leave, the Taliban, with help from ISIS, will fancy Kabul just like Baghdad.
2) Some arrangement with the Sunni tribes in Iraq will have to be made (once again). And this time, it will have to be respected by the Shia-led government, in a way Prime Minister Maliki was not willing to (leading to this chaos in the first place).
3) And finally, a similar arrangement between Sunnis and Alawites in Syria will have to be made and respected by both sides. It is the only way that does not end with one group decimating all others.
And the ugly bottom line: there is little that American force can do – both in Iraq and Syria – if this does not happen, for it will simply not be sustainable.
Demanding that Obama unleash more force is not a policy prescription. American force is viewed in such strategic terms in the region. We are so cowboy-ish about its role. As alluded to earlier, perhaps it will help to come down a notch or two, once in a while, and view military force as a basic tactic that can work only if the regional strategy to sustain any progress exists.
Kudos
So, I while I disagree with him on many issues, kudos to Obama for not getting sucked in under pressure, for some temporary headlines, and actually waiting until a viable strategy is in place; it still isn't, and Americans must accept that it may never be.
Ahh! So he is just waiting? Well, he will never call it that for PR purposes, but he is – correctly – waiting for the right shades of grey to emerge. Only then can more force provide something sustainable, and at a relatively low cost to America. Yes, his lieutenants are trying to make that happen, but much of it is outside their control, and always will be no matter how grandiose Americans may want to feel. Obama gets that, and America is lucky he does.
Look forward to your thoughts!