Now there is talk about removing the end of life counseling requirement from the health care bill. We all know that idiots like Sarah Palin (who was made to look the fool by that intellectual titan Katie Couric) have contorted this provision into "death panels" or some other such nonsense. The reality is that for loved ones end of life planning makes one of the most difficult times that much easier to deal with.
The U.S. economy is stabilizing and may have bottomed out, as the government’s stimulus plan probably saved a million jobs, Nobel Prize winner Paul Krugman said today.
"It’s quite possible, though not certain, that retrospectively, we’ll say that the recession ended in July or August, maybe September," Krugman, 56, said. "My guess is that we’ve bottomed out now, that August was probably the trough month."
This week we saw more evidence that the worst of the recession is behind us.
Nonfarm payroll employment continued to decline in July (-247,000), and the unemployment rate was little changed at 9.4 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. The average monthly job loss for May through July (-331,000) was about half the average decline for November through April (-645,000). In July, job losses continued in many of the major industry sectors.
This week we saw several more pieces of data which add up to a sign the economy is bottoming. Let's go to the data.
I never thought I would contemplate the end of the housing market decline -- it's been with us for a very long time. But now there are preliminary signs of stabilization. Let's look at the charts.
David Rosenberg's work is making a buzz. I referenced his work on June 16 in an article titled Don't Expect a Consumer Led Recovery. I've know of Rosenberg's work for some time. I'm not sure whether he or Mish came up with the phrase "The Age of Frugality" to describe the probable consumer behavior in the next expansion (or whether it was someone else), but the phrase seems to be associated with his work.
It is according to a recent Newsweek headline. Let's look at some of the data points to see what they say.
Like last week, this week we learned more about the underlying structure of the US economy. More and more little pieces are coming together indicating the worst is probably over.
In January of this year the right wing was up in arms about -- well, everything. Every one of Obama's plans was going to destroy the economy. And from January through March the right wing's favorite barometer was the stock market. Every blog posted charts of the markets when they were moving lower. According to the right wign blogs this was a sign that the US was heading into the abyss and it was Obama's fault.
Now there is a problem with that theory. The markets have been in a rally since early March.
One of the great things about blogs is they encourage a healthy debate among people of differing opinions. On Thursday I wrote and article titled The Black Swan Myth. In this article I argued that there was insufficient evidence to argue the economy was currently in a Black Swan situation -- meaning we were in a period when the traditional methods of analysis and explanation were no longed valid and the underlying rules of the economy were in fact fundamentally changing. On Saturday a fellow member of this community posted an article titled The Swan is Still Black and We're Still Screwed. The authored specifically highlighted three areas of my analysis which he disagreed with. Below I will respond to these points and explain why I respectfully disagree with his analysis.
The economic news this week added further evidence to the story that the economy is bottoming. While we are not out of the woods yet (by a long shot) the worst is behind us.
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